Why Bush won

I’ve been trying to figure out why Bush won the election today. My predictions of a Democratic victory suggest that I don’t know what I’m talking about, but here it goes.

Fear of a terrorist attack was probably the biggest factor shifting voters into the Bush camp. Since terrorism kills far fewer people than car crashes, disease, accidents, suicides, street crime, wars, etc., it’s a rather low priority in my mind. Still, lots of voters far from any terrorist targets viewed terrorism as a major issue, and thought that Bush would be stronger at fighting it. For whatever reason, people bought the bogus Republican argument that Kerry was too weak to stop terrorism. And concern with ones personal safety is a powerful factor.

Meanwhile, people must be ignorant of all the garbage that has occurred as a result of Bush’s disastrous policies. The situation in Iraq keeps getting worse with no signs of a turnaround, even after the death of over 1000 American soldiers and 100,000 Iraqis. And piss-poor leadership, before the war and during the occupation, has made things much worse. The media has downplayed Iraq, the budget deficit, and other debacles that Bush responsible for.

And moral concerns like gay marriage and abortion remain central to the Christian right, as What’s the Matter with Kansas? explains in great detail. It seems strange that people regard those issues as more important that stuff that has a major direct impact on their lives, such as Iraq and the economy.

And the factors I thought would break in Kerry’s favor simply didn’t occur. Traditionally, most undecided voters support the challenger, but not this time. High Democratic turnout was countered by high Republican turnout. Despite Bush’s extreme right-wing policies and disgraces such as Abu Gharib, voters weren’t abandoning George Bush or sitting out the election. The Libertarian candidate Michael Badnarik received only a third of a percent of the vote, slight less than the Libertarian did in 2000.

Kerry was a good candidate who ran a good campaign. However, the Democrats haven’t been able to devise and stick with a clear message that resonates with undecided voters. Bush’s simplistic and dishonest message got through instead. It’s an incredibly depressing situation.