Electoral predictions

After reading the electoral predictions other bloggers made, it sounded like a fun game to play. When I was on the treadmill at the gym, these numbers popped into my head:

• Presidency: Kerry 52% & 330 EV, Bush 46% & 208 EV
  
• Senate: 49 D, 49 R, 1 I, 1 runoff
  
• House: 218 D, 216 R, 1 I
  

This may just be optimism, but here are my rationales:

• The polling samples are overly Republican.
• In 2000, Gore did a few percent better than the latest polls, and Bush did a little worse.
• Liberal are angry and motivated to vote.
  
• Undecided voters tend to vote for the challenger.
  
• The 2004 election is like 1994 in reverse, with a significant under-the-radar shift in voting patterns.
  

Mr. Liberal (mentioned by MyDD) came up with similar predictions based on a more knowledgeable analysis. Anyway, we'll find out tomorrow (hopefully) how accurate we are.