Kerry's going to win

Legal Fiction has a convincing post claiming KERRY'S GOING TO WIN, which dovetails with my impressions. There are numerous signs:

• Bush consistently polling under 50% nationwide
• Kerry doing even better in the battleground states
• High Democratic registrations
• Strong Democratic turnout in early voting
• Intense interest in the election among Democratic-leaning voters, such as young adults

Plus, as Legal Fiction emphasizes, Democrats are angry and angry people vote. Conservative anger towards Bill Clinton in 1994 gave Republicans control of Congress. And the number of Democrats angry at Bush today is probably larger than the number of Republicans angry at Clinton in 1994.

However, a couple of factors still concern me. Many polls still favor Bush over Kerry. Sure, you can argue about biased polls with bad samples or polling models that don't capture higher Democratic motivation to vote. And, for that matter, there's the widespread tendency of undecided voters to support the incumbent. Still, that reasoning could just be wishful thinking among the liberals, who see what they want to see.