How would Dean be doing?

As a thought experiment, I'm wondering how the general election campaign would have proceeded had Howard Dean won the Democratic nomination. Would he be more successful running against Bush, or less so? Considering Kerry's current difficulties, and the fact the Kerry won the nomination in part because primary voters though he was the most electable, it's an interesting subject to ponder.

Dean brings out stronger feelings, for and against him, than Kerry does. Dean would obviously have many more enthusiastic supporters. The conventional wisdom was that Dean fans would vote for Kerry anyway, but on the other hand it's hard to pull in undecided voters for a candidate who diehard Democrats aren't excited about. The Kerry campaign lacks real energy, besides a strong yearning to kick Bush out of office.

Meanwhile, there were a lot of people who didn't like care for Dean's personality, as reflected in pundits fretting over whether Dean was stable enough to be President. However, the mass media seems to diagnose psychological problems in every Democratic Presidential nominee, such as Kerry's flip-flopping or Gore's lying. It's not clear that Dean's personality would have appeared any worse than Kerry's after being distorted by the media kaleidoscope. (Kerry came across better during the primaries because the media didn't subject him to the psychoanalysis treatment.)

Dean could emphasise the Iraqi war and the Patriot Act as campaign issues, unlike Kerry who has to contend with his Senate votes for both measures. The mess in Iraq, which continues to worsen, would make Dean's case. Plus, Dean could constrast the massive Bush deficits with Vermont's balanced budgets. Dean would be accused of being too liberal and too eager to raise taxes, but every Democrat faces those charges.

Kerry's military service is definitely an advantage for him. However, Kerry's anti-war activities, which I view as one of the best things about him, did piss off a lot of right wingers, such as the Swift Boat Liars. Considering that veterans lost the last three elections, I'm not sure how essential military service is, though national security concerns are much greater now than they were in past years.

You can never know, but my gut reaction is that Dean would have done at least as well as Kerry, mainly because Dean has more charisma and a stronger message. It definitely would have been a more fun campaign.