Iraq deteriorating

According to Newsweek, the Iraq insurgency is growing stronger (from Daily Kos).

It's not only that U.S. casualty figures keep climbing. American counterinsurgency experts are noticing some disturbing trends in those statistics. The Defense Department counted 87 attacks per day on U.S. forces in August—the worst monthly average since Bush's flight-suited visit to the USS Abraham Lincoln in May 2003. Preliminary analysis of the July and August numbers also suggests that U.S. troops are being attacked across a wider area of Iraq than ever before. And the number of gunshot casualties apparently took a huge jump in August. Until then, explosive devices and shrapnel were the primary cause of combat injuries, typical of a "phase two" insurgency, where sudden ambushes are the rule. (Phase one is the recruitment phase, with most actions confined to sabotage. That's how things started in Iraq.) Bullet wounds would mean the insurgents are standing and fighting—a step up to phase three.

And historically, insurgencies tend to get worse over time. Even though a Kerry administration would be vastly more capable than the Bush White House has been, there's no reasonable solution to the Iraqi mess. There was a window of opportunity, for about a year after Saddam fell, to get things on the right track. Now that the Iraqi people have lost confidence with the Americans and are angry with us, there's no chance for US-lead troops to restore order.