100,000 Iraqi deaths

This is shocking (from Lean Left).

As many as 100,000 more Iraqi civilians have died in the 18 months since the US-led invasion last year than would have been expected in the period before the war, a study claimed today.

Researchers said the chances of a violent death were 58 times higher after the invasion than before it.

The study, whose results were published today by the respected Lancet medical journal, was based on interviews with Iraqis, most of them doctors. The findings were compared with the pre-war death rate.

I'm somewhat skeptical, since those numbers are several times larger than other estimates. However, the methodology -- interviewing a random cross-section of the population and extrapolating from their responses -- sounds like a solid approach to determing civilian deaths.

If those figures are in the right ballpark, they totally undermine the one moral argument for the Iraqi War: stopping Saddam Hussein's horrible human rights abuses. The anarchy and violence in Iraq have made it even worse than it was before the war. And I don't see Iraq improving for a while, even with Bush out of the White House.

Kerry's going to win

Legal Fiction has a convincing post claiming KERRY'S GOING TO WIN, which dovetails with my impressions. There are numerous signs:

• Bush consistently polling under 50% nationwide
• Kerry doing even better in the battleground states
• High Democratic registrations
• Strong Democratic turnout in early voting
• Intense interest in the election among Democratic-leaning voters, such as young adults

Plus, as Legal Fiction emphasizes, Democrats are angry and angry people vote. Conservative anger towards Bill Clinton in 1994 gave Republicans control of Congress. And the number of Democrats angry at Bush today is probably larger than the number of Republicans angry at Clinton in 1994.

However, a couple of factors still concern me. Many polls still favor Bush over Kerry. Sure, you can argue about biased polls with bad samples or polling models that don't capture higher Democratic motivation to vote. And, for that matter, there's the widespread tendency of undecided voters to support the incumbent. Still, that reasoning could just be wishful thinking among the liberals, who see what they want to see.

Iraqi insurgent explosives

Talking Points Memo has a major revelation (from Atrios).

Some 350 tons of high explosives (RDX and HMX), which were under IAEA seal while Saddam was in power, were looted during the early days of the US occupation. Like so much else, it was just left unguarded.

Not only are these super-high-yield explosives probably being used in many, if not most, of the various suicide and car bombings in Iraq, but these particular explosives are ones used in the triggering process for nuclear weapons.

In other words, it's bad stuff.

What also emerges in the Nelson Report is that the Defense Department has been trying to keep this secret for some time. The DOD even went so far as to order the Iraqis not to inform the IAEA that the materials had gone missing. Informing the IAEA, of course, would lead to it becoming public knowledge in the United States.

The complete incompetence of the postwar planning by the Bush administration, who were well aware of the explosive stockpile, is once again on display. And significant numbers of Americans and Iraqis have perished as a result. Plus, there's the cover-up, which backfired in an October surprise that can only hurt Bush's chances.

Let's just hope that people hear about it. The New York Times has one story, which doesn't discuss the car-bomb connections. Joshua Marshal says that 60 Minutes may cover it, which would receive a lot more attention.

Paper ballot secrecy

Considering all the concerns about computer voting, this story is aggravating.

Santa Clara County doesn't want you to know you don't have to vote on a touch-screen machine next month. You can vote by paper if you choose, and poll workers should be telling you that upfront.

Instead, Santa Clara and apparently other counties with electronic systems are instructing poll workers to acknowledge the paper option only if voters explicitly ask about it. That policy made two poll-worker trainees who contacted us feel like they're under a gag order not to tell people about their rights.

California Secretary of State Kevin Shelley mandated the paper option because it will be at least a year before electronic voting machines in California can spit out a paper stub letting voters verify the choices that they made on a touch screen.

I'll ask for a paper ballot as a matter of principle, largely to protest the Santa Clara County policy. Also, the more people who ask for paper ballots, showing their concerns regarding computer voting, the more pressure the government will feel to address those concerns.

California voters can have a positive impact by who they vote for (Democrats) and how they vote (paper ballots).

The Trouble With Testosterone

The Trouble With Testosterone and Other Essays on the Biology of the Human Predicament is a collection of articles that originally appeared in Discover and The Sciences. Robert Sapolsky, the author, is a Stanford neurologist who spends three months each year studying wild baboons in the Serengeti. Many of his primate observations are rather interesting, such as the baboons who started gathering food from a garbage dump, which provided more readily available nourishment than they were accustomed to, with both positive and negative health consequences. Another essay analyzed the psychology of the firing squad, in which no individual shooter can take definite responsibility for the prisoner’s death, and how people approach probabilistic events. Other essays were less rewarding, mainly because they covered material I had seen before. Sapolsky is an effective popular science writer; each selection was readable, informative, and connected in some way to our daily lives.

Blog relapse

Well, I broke down and looked over the political blogs again. They were, obviously enough, focused on the election campaign, focusing on poll results and the Presidential debates. I had heard about the two outrages de jour among liberal bloggers: Sinclair broadcasting an anti-Kerry documentary and a Republican group tossing Democrat voter registration forms.

It's hard to stay away from the blogs, but I'll try not to get so obsessed.

California propositions (revised)

Here are my current views about the California propositions, now that I've read the San Francisco Bay Guardian endorsements.

• Prop. 1A: Protection of Local Government Revenues -- No; excessively limits changes in future funding patterns.
  
• Prop. 59: Public Records, Open Meetings – Yes; open government is a good thing.
• Prop. 60: Election Rights of Political Parties – Yes; mainly to prevent the odious Prop. 62 from taking effect.
• Prop. 60A: Surplus Property – No; there are already too many nitpicky rules about government spending.
• Prop. 61: Children’s Hospital Projects. Grant Program. Bond Act – Yes; how can I turn down children’s hospitals, even with the massive bond burden?
• Prop. 62: Elections. Primaries – No; voters in a primary should belong to the relevant party, and blocking third parties from the November ballot is just wrong.
• Prop. 63: Mental Health Services Expansion, Funding. Tax on Personal Incomes Above $1 Million – Yes; taxing the rich to pay for mental health care is a no-brainer.
• Prop. 64: Limits on Private Enforcement of Unfair Business Competition Laws – No; class-action lawsuits are one of the few forces fighting corporate injustice.
• Prop. 65: Local Government Funds, Revenues – No; the proposition's sponsors withdrew their support in favor of 1A.
• Prop. 66: Limitations on “Three Strikes” Law. Sex Crimes. Punishment – Yes; applying Three Strikes after non-violent crimes has been an expensive disaster.
• Prop. 67: Emergency Medical Services. Funding. Telephone Surcharge – No; since the money goes to massive private hospital chains with questionable practices.
• Prop. 68: Non-Tribal Commercial Gambling Expansion. Tribal Gaming Compact Amendments. Revenues, Tax Exemptions – No; since it would lead to slot machines everywhere.
• Prop. 69: DNA Samples. Collection. Database. Funding – No; privacy concerns, especially for people who aren’t convicted, outweigh the law-enforcements benefits.
• Prop. 70: Tribal Gaming Compacts. Exclusive Gaming Rights. Contributions to State – No; I just don’t care.
• Prop. 71: Stem Cell Research. Funding. Bonds – No; though stem-cell research is very promising, the state can’t afford it.
• Prop. 72: Health Care Coverage Requirements – Yes; everyone with a job should receive health care.

Except for Prop. 67, I independently came to same conclusions as the Bay Guardian after reading the voter information handbook.

King Lear

After completing A Thousand Acres, a retelling of King Lear, it made sense to go back and read William Shakespeare’s original play. Changes in the English language over the last four centuries make it difficult to understand what Shakespeare is saying, though the overall plotline was clear. For example, I couldn’t follow the mock trial involving senile Lear, a Fool speaking in verse, a noble fugitive pretending to be a madman, and another man hiding his identity, though it is probably a witty scene. Besides, Shakespeare is always more appealing on stage, as it was meant to be experienced, instead of the printed page. Still, King Lear is a powerful story, and being exposed to it is culturally enriching.

VP debate

I watched a major portion of the vice presidential debate, until I got tired of listening to Cheney and gave up. Overall, it struck me as almost a tie, with Edwards doing a little better, to the extent I could put aside my personal biases.

Actually, I expected a lot more from Edwards, given his experience as a trial lawyer and his charismatic stump speeches. Cheney, who's a smart guy, did pretty well considering his dour temperament and all the problems that have arisen over the last few years.

Edwards talking about real problems we're facing today -- Iraq in turmoil, 1.6 million lost jobs, 5 million more people in poverty -- struck me as more convincing than Cheney speculating that Kerry wouldn't be effective in fighting terrorism. However, most VP debates have limited impact, and this one will be no exception.

Jay Leno had a great line summing things up.

The most amazing part of the debate was when Dick Cheney told John Edwards in his Darth Vader voice, 'John I am your father.'

Snow Falling on Cedars

David Guterson’s novel Snow Falling on Cedars centers around a murder trial in 1954 on a small fishing island off the Washington coast. The defendant is Japanese while the victim is Caucasian, providing a significant racial angle so soon after WW II, in which many Americans fought, the Japanese were sent to internment camps, and the defendant did both. Guterson describes personalities and histories of several people in detail, and does an excellent job of conjuring the small-town world they live in. Though the author’s craftsmanship in writing and evocative images were impressive, I often found myself glancing ahead to see how much further each chapter continued. It was a decent read, though someoneone with a literary mindset would appreciate it a lot more than I did.

The Outlaw Sea

William Langewiesche’s The Outlaw Sea: A World of Freedom, Chaos, and Crime describes the wild world of international commercial shipping, which is a lot more interesting than it sounds. Shipping is a weakly regulated, cutthroat industry that plays an essential role in the global economy. However, nations have limited control over international waters, giving rise to the freedom, chaos, and crime mentioned in the book’s subtitle.

Langewiesche, a correspondent for the Atlantic Monthly, starts by describing the sinking of the Kristal, a tanker shipping molasses from India to Amsterdam. The Kristal, which was at least five years past its retirement age, had typical international associations: Italian owners, a Croatian captain, Spanish & Pakistani crew, and a British customer. The ship ventured forth into treacherous oceans in order to maintain their schedule, a high priority in the modern business climate. Eleven men, almost a third of the crew, died at sea. And such events are common; each year, dozens of large ships and hundreds of small merchant vessels sink, killing several hundred sailors.

The next chapter focuses on criminal activities. Terrorism is a major concern, since searching the massive commercial fleet for dangers in infeasible and al Qaeda, surprisingly, owns several merchant ships. Piracy is another major concern. Langewiesche describes, in detail, the capture of the Alondra Rainbow, a $10 million ship carrying $10 million of aluminum, near Indonesia. Out of the handful of major piracy attacks each year, the Alondra Rainbow stands out in that a few of the perpetrators were captured and received jail terms.

The Outlaw Sea next discusses the environmental problems of oil spills and government efforts to prevent accidents involving oil tankers. After that, two long chapters describe the sinking of the ferry ship Estonia in the Baltic in 1994, killing 850 people. Langewiesche spends way too much time on the experiences of the passengers and the investigation into what happened; that’s the weakest portion of the book. Systematic problems interest me a lot more than an isolated high-profile disaster.

The final chapter analyzes the ship-breaking industry, which salvages raw materials from obsolete ships. The Indian port and industrial zone of Alang breaks down half of the world’s condemned ships. Western groups, such as Greenpeace, are aghast at the miserable working conditions and the environmental impact of the activities there. However, Alang provides a livelihood for around a million Indian workers who can’t find anything better.

The Outlaw Sea is a very readable account of a world I knew virtually nothing about. The journalistic writing style and a couple of maps make it a very easy read. It reminds you of the widespread Third-World working conditions that underlay the quality of life we all enjoy, along with the difficulty of addressing problems in the global economy.

California propositions

Update (10/13/04): I altered by views slightly after further research; look over these recommendations instead.

The massive voter information guide to the California state propositions arrived today. After spending over an hour looking it over, here are my initial impressions.

• Prop. 59: Public Records, Open Meetings – Yes; open government is a good thing.
• Prop. 60: Election Rights of Political Parties – Yes; mainly to prevent the odious Prop. 62 from taking effect.
• Prop. 60A: Surplus Property – No; there are already too many nitpicky rules about government spending.
• Prop. 61: Children’s Hospital Projects. Grant Program. Bond Act – Yes; how can I turn down children’s hospitals, even with the massive bond burden?
• Prop. 62: Elections. Primaries – No; voters in a primary should belong to the relevant party, and blocking third parties from the November ballot is just wrong.
• Prop. 63: Mental Health Services Expansion, Funding. Tax on Personal Incomes Above $1 Million – Yes; taxing the rich to pay for mental health care is a no-brainer.
• Prop. 64: Limits on Private Enforcement of Unfair Business Competition Laws – No; class-action lawsuits are one of the few forces fighting corporate injustice.
• Prop. 66: Limitations on “Three Strikes” Law. Sex Crimes. Punishment – Yes; applying Three Strikes after non-violent crimes has been an expensive disaster.
• Prop. 67: Emergency Medical Services. Funding. Telephone Surcharge – Yes; paying 50 cents per month for better emergency medicine is a good deal.
• Prop. 68: Non-Tribal Commercial Gambling Expansion. Tribal Gaming Compact Amendments.Revenues, Tax Exemptions – No opinion on Indian gambling; I just don’t care.
• Prop. 69: DNA Samples. Collection. Database. Funding – No; privacy concerns, especially for people who aren’t convicted, outweigh the law-enforcements benefits.
• Prop. 70: Tribal Gaming Compacts. Exclusive Gaming Rights. Contributions to State – No opinion on Indian gambling; I just don’t care.
• Prop. 71: Stem Cell Research. Funding. Bonds – No; though stem-cell research is very promising, the state can’t afford it.
• Prop. 72: Health Care Coverage Requirements – Yes; everyone with a job should receive health care.

Some of these choices will change by Election Day. As always, I will follow the San Francisco Bay Guardian recommendations fairly closely, since I agree with them philosophically and they pay a lot more attention to California politics than I do.

Debate results

I didn't watch last night's Presidential debate, but according to the news reports Kerry did quite well. And considering the general Republican bias of the mass media, Kerry must have kicked ass.

In the debate excerpts, Kerry criticized Bush's actions, while Bush criticized Kerry's rhetoric. Kerry's approach is a lot more persuasive, since it's almost a tacit admission on Bush's part that you can't justify the Iraq mess on its merits.